Stream overview
This was another longer stream (1:37:16), with so much wisdom from the GOAT. I was absolutely spoilt for choice on good quotes to include! The notes below cover:
Kristjan’s positions and trades (in $AI and $CVNA);
Handling runaway markets like the one from this stream day;
How to trade bull/momentum markets — trimming and trailing, moving averages, and ignoring the news;
Signs of healthy action — flagging stocks that had big moves up, and are holding their gains and surfing the moving averages;
Kristjan’s theme/sector observations;
Yet another EP class, with a special focus on biotechs; and
Breakout conditions.
Kristjan’s positions
AI (added a “tiny bit” during the stream, 9:41 EST/25:45, details below)
APLD
ARQQ
CVNA (only holding his core position that he bought in the high $12s; sold the addition from the day before, 8 June 2023, in the high $25s on (I believe) the same day, for a quick 30% or so profit — see 1:01:30)
DNA
GSIT
GTLB
IMGN
IOT
MNDY
PLTR
QBTS
RGTI
No new positions during this stream. No new or fully closed positions since the previous stream (8 June).
$AI: tiny add on hourly breakout
Kristjan added to his position at 9:41 EST/25:45 when $AI broke out on the hourly chart:
It also had a nice daily chart, flagging after a big move up:
But by 10:21 EST/1:05:51, Kristjan felt that it wasn’t a good setup after all, considering the daily chart (too extended, even if the overall action looks good). However, he did describe the setup on the hourly chart as “beautiful”.
At 1:08:07, Kristjan did explain that there’s no need for him to look at intraday charts, apart from at the market open, to check the volume on potential EPs (more on those later).
Runaway market today
Kristjan’s view on the market on the day of the stream can be summarised quite succinctly (31:24): “We’re literally in a runaway market right now.” (Which is something we haven’t seen since late October or early November 2021.)
This can be very dangerous, particularly for desperate people who start chasing things on account of having missed the rally we’ve recently had, and then get smoked.
Kristjan’s advice for runaway markets like on this stream’s day (33:14):
“It’s very important not to get any FOMO at this point, because […] most things are already up a lot over the past month [or] month and half.
“There are things setting up, but right now, I don’t see much.”
So let’s zoom out a little.
Trading bull/momentum markets
I belatedly realised that I left out a good quote out of the previous stream’s notes. Considering the limited number of changes in the long list of portfolio names above, however, it may actually have been a lucky accident, since it fits this stream better:
“The great thing about bull markets — you can just trim and trail.”
Much less work than constantly looking for new trades! Which, by the way, was a big reason for Kristjan to transition from day to swing trading.
Linked to this, Kristjan said during this stream (16:55):
“$SOFI’s straight up from the EP, almost every day. This is what a momentum market looks like, guys! Things just go up and up and up.”
“And so many people [are] still in disbelief, hating on the market. Don’t be that guy. Have an open mind; trade what’s in front of you. And […] most important of all, learn how stocks move!”
Moving averages
Later in the stream, at 1:12:55, Kristjan said the following, which links nicely to the above:
“The point is: when you’re in a […] trending market, and you get these leading stocks, […] the moving averages work like magic. They’re literally magic lines.”
Considering the “magic” part, and that trading isn’t a hard science, it really doesn’t matter exactly what moving averages you use — for the short-term moving average, for example, Kristjan uses the 10 EMA. He said you could also use the 9 EMA or 11 EMA. I personally like the 8 EMA (Fibonacci numbers). To quote the GOAT again: “As long as it’s good enough.”
Related, at 1:36:19, Kristjan remarked that many stocks were fading, but that “the key is to see how they act on support levels” — such as key moving averages! Don’t forget: we had a runaway (very extended) market on the stream day.
Ignore the news
From 48:33, Kristjan also had a bit of a rant about:
How useless analysts are;
That there’s always something to worry about — e.g. recessions, debt ceilings, etc.;
How no one knows exactly when, for example, the next recession will come; and
That even if we did know this, we still don’t know how the market will react.
To finish this section with another quote from the GOAT:
“The best investment you can do in yourself is to watch the markets. Watch setups. […] Have a market filter. That’s the only analyst/economist you should be listening to: it’s the market.”
The full rant was quite long, and I’ve already covered similar ones from previous streams, so don’t want to get too detailed or repetitive here. You can always re-read this (another rant) or this (a practical market filter, which Kristjan re-recommended during this stream).
At some point I’ll collect all these, and structure them sensibly in one place, to make for a smoother reading experience and better study materials.
Promising-looking flags
At 21:38, Kristjan said that he likes how many of the stocks that have been going straight up over the last 1–1.5 months are now flagging, or starting to flag. For example:
To quote Kristjan again (21:57):
“They’re holding their gains. They’re surfing the moving averages. That’s exactly what you want to see.
“That’s something we haven’t seen over the past year and half or so.”
Kristjan then went on to say how, over the past 18 months or so, we’ve been seeing pretty weak moves that faded pretty quickly. That’s very different to what we’re seeing now, with “things actually holding up on a broad scale”.
“More and more stocks are participating. More and more sectors. That’s exactly what you want to see.”
Theme/sector observations
China names are waking up
We’re seeing a lot of China names waking up now, too — see $KWEB (China Internet ETF):
Kristjan also specifically mentioned $VIPS (leading Chinese online discount retailer), and how it “never pulled back over the past 4–5 months”:
As a reminder, earlier this year, China was showing strength in January (see the 26 January stream notes), but weakness in the past 3–4 months (see e.g. the 18 May stream notes).
Russell weak today
However, $IWM (Russell) was showing weakness on the stream day, which is interesting considering that this day’s market was also, as Kristjan put it, a “runaway market”:
But the Russell is acting as a “huge laggard”, in Kristjan’s words (37:10). Doesn’t take away the fact that it had a big breakout earlier this month though, which it is so far holding:
The leading quantum name: $IONQ
We’ve previously already talked how strong the quantum theme is, alongside AI, and how $IONQ is the leading name (see the 8 June stream notes). But Kristjan was swearing at 9:39 EST/23:25 when he missed $IONQ:
5-minute chart:
Kristjan hesitated to buy it the day before (8 June 2023), then wanted to buy it on the day of the stream on a pullback. But he missed it.
Fortunately for Kristjan, at the time of writing (17 June), we now know he would’ve been stopped out. The stock continues to look good though, flagging, building higher lows and surfing the moving averages:
EPs (again)
Kristjan also showed us some good EPs again, saying that we should study the setup because it’s probably the best one for most people.
So if you’re going to master just one setup (and you should definitely start with only one), it’s probably EPs. One particularly nice thing about them is that you don’t have to be glued to the screen to be able to trade them, so great for part-time traders.
I’m not sure how good they are for people who really can’t be at their screen during this time of the day, however. I have heard (not from Kristjan himself) that the fishhook setup could work for those people if they still want to concentrate on EPs, but can’t vouch for this since I haven’t studied it.
Incidentally, the other day someone declared to me that you can always find a way of checking the market at the open to trade EPs. I can agree that there are many ways of getting creative about it — excusing yourself to use the bathroom, for example — but I think that person was forgetting that there really are situations where that simply isn’t an option — if you’re a surgeon who is mid-operation, for example.
Anyway, let’s talk charts.
$IMGN
Kristjan gave $IMGN as a good EP example at 1:03:19:
Notice how after the EP on 3 May 2023, the stock just kept on building higher lows before making another solid move up.
$IMGN has come up several times before during the streams, partly because it’s also in Kristjan’s portfolio. For more information on this EP, see the 18 May stream notes, which was also a masterclass on EPs in general.
$VKTX
This one had two relatively recent EPs: on 19 December 2022 and on 28 March 2023.
This one has also come up before, during the 19 May stream.
Playing biotechs
Incidentally, Kristjan said this in response to people worried about biotechs having big gap downs (1:06:31):
“Those of you who are so afraid of buying biotechs[:] when they release data, […] the event is out of the way. Like, they’re not going to release data the next day, right? They’re probably not going to release data for months. Especially […] these smaller [or] micro caps, that only have one or two things in the pipeline. Like, they release the data[, and] if it’s good, it’s good, and the stock’s hopefully going to go up. You don’t need to worry about it.
“It’s not like buying a biotech that has announced that they’re going to release data a week from now — it’s not the same thing. That’s just playing Russian roulette.”
Breakouts
Someone in the chat asked Kristjan what he thought of the breakout in $WEAV on the stream day (1:05:28):
Kristjan’s response:
“I don’t know. […] I’ve found breakouts are best when […] the market’s been going down or sideways for a while, and […] a momentum stock [then has] a breakout. But now […] the market’s kinda straight up.”
(Breakout conditions were also discussed during the 23 May 2023 stream.)
Regarding $WEAV, Kristjan finished with: “I don’t know. It could work.” But as it turned out, the breakout didn’t work (we’re talking 9 June, the red candle with a long wick I added a blue arrow to):
The stock did break out the day after; however, but if you’d bought it on the stream day, you probably would’ve been stopped, or would have at least sold due to the weak close that day (if you trade with sensible rules!).
Later in the stream, Kristjan mentioned that he hardly trades breakouts now, and focuses on EPs instead, which he finds much easier to trade. He’s said this before, during the 18 May stream, when he also mentioned how his girlfriend, whom he taught to trade, also just trades EPs now.
Good weekly chart: $SOUN
Someone in the chat asked about $SOUN (AI theme), to which Kristjan replied that it looks good on the weekly chart, and set an alert on it:
For completeness, here’s the daily chart too:
Kristjan has previously bought this name, but got stopped out of it during the 1 June stream.
More stream notes
All my Qullamaggie notes are available here. One of particular interest to you may be the masterclass on EPs from 18 May:
And as for the implications of my post yesterday, it looks like I’m going with option 1 (more detailed post about this soon). But rest assured that:
I’m not taking down any old posts; and
More importantly, I’m still going to be posting regular new stacks, often inspired by Qullamaggie, but also by other great traders. But I won’t be able to do detailed stream notes for every individual stream anymore — not when I also have potentially award-winning books to write! (Still feels surreal.)
Other trading resources
The Trading Resource Hub’s full archive is available here, which includes some recent posts relating to quantitative analysis, statistics, and how to use them as psychological aids in your trading. You can expect some deeper dives on specific analysis techniques in the near future.
If you value and want to support my Substack, please like and share it! Also feel free to subscribe to get new stacks directly to your inbox:
Finally, even if my Substack is going to become more of a side project, quality and continual self-improvement remain very important to me, so if you can think of ways to improve this publication, please do let me know! Leave a comment below, message me on Twitter, or simply email me at kayklingson@yahoo.com. I welcome all feedback, in whatever format you’re comfortable to share it with me :)
More about Qullamaggie
To learn more about Kristjan Kullamägi, aka Qullamaggie, and the way he trades, visit qullamaggie.com.
All past streams are available on Kristjan’s YouTube channel.
Your Work has Inspired my renewed interest:
I use thinkorswim.
My Scan criteria:
QuallyVerse ~600 tickers
close > 1, close < 100
market cap > 5 million and < 15 billion
share count > 5 million and < 500,000,000
AvgVol > 1000000
AvgDollarVol > 10000000
close < close[30] * 2
ADR > 3
My Watch List Filter
QuallyVerse Watch List Filter
#on 5 minute, places volume move on top based on the ratio of the sum of 3 five min bars and 78 five min bars starting 3 bars back.
Round(Sum(volume[3], 78) / Sum(volume, 3), 2)
My Buy Criteria
Buy on big volume with three higher lows on one minute above the daily VWAP.
My Stop Loss
Stop loss under the low of the last price shelf or 5%
My Position Management
Take first profit at:
First consolidation or close below VWAP or close below previous price move.
My Close Position:
On consolidation undercut or any reversal below previous move.
Big volume, no price move.
I love your work!