24% win rate here, so you are not alone! Interested to know how you set your two stops. I do something similar setting one around -0.6R where I will sell half my position and then sell the other half at my stop loss (-1R).
Hey Jacob, the 22% was just for the first two months of 2025. My usual win rate is in the 30–35% area.
I initially tried Jeff Sun's 3-stop strategy, but I found the first third got taken out unnecessarily. I was also uncomfortable about having my stop at what felt like random levels from a technical standpoint.
That's when I started experimenting. I used the principles of technical analysis on multiple timeframes, for full-sized positions, to try a two-tiered stop: One at a logical technical level on my main timeframe (usually LOD), the other at a logical level intraday, as tight as I dare have it — because, from my stats, I know that my biggest winners tend to go and never look back.
The specifics of that intraday level vary — if the entry isn't triggered until later in the day, it could be the low of that or the previous 30-minute bar. It can also be below the most recent relevant higher low on a lower timeframe, or below VWAP.
One of my deep lessons of 2025 with A-Ha effect was this: everyone suffers one of two pain points: the pain of discipline (trading your system, selling acording rules, sometimes prematurely) or the pain of regret (not following your system, your rules, your intuitions/experiences). I understand the pain of discipline much better now and prefer it over the pain of regret 😁
That's a very interesting one. Very early on in my journey, before I'd found proper technical-analysis-based strategies, I heard the advice to do what you'd regret the least. Basically the same logic!
But yours is more discipline/system-focused. Which I think is the better approach. Make breaking your rules the more uncomfortable thing to do. Do the hard things now for an easier life later.
Selling too late, giving back gains, is painful, obviously. Being disciplined and sell partials is painful as well. When I i understood, that it is either this or that pain, it was easier for me to follow my initial layout with taking partial profits. My equity curves thanks me for that ❤️
Really solid breakdown of those 2025 lessons. The anticipation vs reaction shift is probably the most underrated part here because it's not just about technical setups, it's more like developing a feel for when contraction is about to flip to expansion. I've noticed that alot of traders (myself included back in the day) get stuck reacting to price moves instead of gaming out the likely scenarios beforehand, which just leads to chasing or cutting winners too soon. The PLTR earnings play is a good example where having that mental map let you stay calm when it gapped down instead of panic-selling. I feel liek that kind of anticipatory framework is what separates people who can handle extended timeframes from those who get shaken out.
Thank you! Yes, I've been thinking about market structure much more at a foundational level -- constant contraction and expansion, on every timeframe. It's a point I could have gone into much more depth for in this stack, but I was constrained by time on this occasion. Also by client confidentiality, but this constraint is temporary for the lessons relevant here.
Definitely something I'll be going into depth for in a future stack!
In the next section of that same stack, "Limiting new positions", proposed an alternative. It helped me. I like the quantifiable aspect, yet based on your own patterns.
24% win rate here, so you are not alone! Interested to know how you set your two stops. I do something similar setting one around -0.6R where I will sell half my position and then sell the other half at my stop loss (-1R).
Hey Jacob, the 22% was just for the first two months of 2025. My usual win rate is in the 30–35% area.
I initially tried Jeff Sun's 3-stop strategy, but I found the first third got taken out unnecessarily. I was also uncomfortable about having my stop at what felt like random levels from a technical standpoint.
That's when I started experimenting. I used the principles of technical analysis on multiple timeframes, for full-sized positions, to try a two-tiered stop: One at a logical technical level on my main timeframe (usually LOD), the other at a logical level intraday, as tight as I dare have it — because, from my stats, I know that my biggest winners tend to go and never look back.
The specifics of that intraday level vary — if the entry isn't triggered until later in the day, it could be the low of that or the previous 30-minute bar. It can also be below the most recent relevant higher low on a lower timeframe, or below VWAP.
Hope that helps!
One of my deep lessons of 2025 with A-Ha effect was this: everyone suffers one of two pain points: the pain of discipline (trading your system, selling acording rules, sometimes prematurely) or the pain of regret (not following your system, your rules, your intuitions/experiences). I understand the pain of discipline much better now and prefer it over the pain of regret 😁
Happy New Year, Walla!
That's a very interesting one. Very early on in my journey, before I'd found proper technical-analysis-based strategies, I heard the advice to do what you'd regret the least. Basically the same logic!
But yours is more discipline/system-focused. Which I think is the better approach. Make breaking your rules the more uncomfortable thing to do. Do the hard things now for an easier life later.
Selling too late, giving back gains, is painful, obviously. Being disciplined and sell partials is painful as well. When I i understood, that it is either this or that pain, it was easier for me to follow my initial layout with taking partial profits. My equity curves thanks me for that ❤️
Yes, most of the time I use one daily candle as the stop. Buy above the high and stop below the low.
And based on the recent trade feedback, I also increase/decrease position size.
Thanks for providing the link to that article, I will go through it.
Ah, I meant if you paid attention to the stock's ATR% or ADR?
Yes, I do note that as well. I have it on my chart as a reference point to know if the stock has come under my buying range percentage.
Sometimes, this helps me in keeping tight stops on a higher ATR name.
Really solid breakdown of those 2025 lessons. The anticipation vs reaction shift is probably the most underrated part here because it's not just about technical setups, it's more like developing a feel for when contraction is about to flip to expansion. I've noticed that alot of traders (myself included back in the day) get stuck reacting to price moves instead of gaming out the likely scenarios beforehand, which just leads to chasing or cutting winners too soon. The PLTR earnings play is a good example where having that mental map let you stay calm when it gapped down instead of panic-selling. I feel liek that kind of anticipatory framework is what separates people who can handle extended timeframes from those who get shaken out.
Thank you! Yes, I've been thinking about market structure much more at a foundational level -- constant contraction and expansion, on every timeframe. It's a point I could have gone into much more depth for in this stack, but I was constrained by time on this occasion. Also by client confidentiality, but this constraint is temporary for the lessons relevant here.
Definitely something I'll be going into depth for in a future stack!
Also anticipating on the *right* stocks. That made a big difference too!
Nice article Kyna.
Getting aggressive at the right time has been very tough for me and I am still working on it.
I am in the similar win rate situation, it’s fluctuates around 30-40%.
For building in failure, here is what I am doing:
- being a full time employee, I always use hard stop loss.
- my stop loss is always around 2-4% range. Max I go is 5% if the setup looks A+.
- I take a break for a while maybe 2-3 days after I have string of losses. Like if I have 3-4 continuous losses.
- when my trade hits 2R target, I move the stop loss to breakeven for the remainder of the position.
That kind of win rate seems pretty common, at least for this trading style!
Is your stop loss % based on the stock's average daily move, too?
Re that point about taking a break after a string of losses, Jeff Sun made a good point about reducing vs pausing drawdown. I covered it here: https://tradingresourcehub.substack.com/i/152929771/reducing-vs-pausing-drawdown
In the next section of that same stack, "Limiting new positions", proposed an alternative. It helped me. I like the quantifiable aspect, yet based on your own patterns.
How long do you usually stay in a trade on average? Days, weeks, months?
Loser/breakeven trade: days. Possibly less than a day.
Winners: weeks, or if I'm onto a big runner, months.