Qullamaggie Stream Notes: 5 June 2023
Timeless wisdom from the GOAT, preferred action in the indices, updated AI/quantum list, and charts
I’m back from my holiday! And as promised, I shall be working through the streams I missed as quickly as I can. Thanks for your patience :)
Stream overview
Despite the quiet day and short stream (30:14), we were still given ample opportunity to learn from Kristjan. The notes below cover:
Kristjan’s positions and watchlist for the day;
Some important lessons about not forcing trades, maintaining perspective and a reminder that the biggest movers aren’t quality names;
What Kristjan would like to see the indices do;
Insights into the recent action of solar stocks;
The new names on Kristjan’s AI and quantum computing list; and
As ever, some noteworthy charts discussed during this stream.
Kristjan’s positions
AI
APLD
ARQQ
CVNA
DNA
GSIT
IMGN
IOT
MNDY
PLTR
QBTS
No new positions during this stream. Sold $RGTI on 2 June 2023, after that day’s stream ended; stopped out at $0.90 or slightly lower (probably 10:20–10:24 EST).
$AI
Kristjan mentioned at 18:22 that $AI got very close (about $0.20 away) to stopping him out on 2 June, after that day’s stream ended. However, he has already sold partials of his original position from his EP entry point on 15 May into strength, and held a third of his original position into earnings on 31 May. He also remarked that he wants to see $AI hold the 10 EMA, which it has so far, and that the hate on the stock is “just incredible — holy s**t”. (He also tweeted about this yesterday, 13 June.)
Kristjan’s watchlist
EXAI
SMCI
UCAR
All removed at 9:36 EST/9:31.
Today’s market
As mentioned earlier, this was a relatively short stream on a quiet market day. Kristjan didn’t see much going on pre-market nor later in the stream. (Which is atypical for Mondays, when there is more frequently news about takeovers etc.)
However, he did share what he’d like to see the indices do, as well as his observations regarding solar names, which are both covered later. First, however, some timeless wisdom from the GOAT:
Qullamaggie wisdom
Don’t force trades/overtrade
By 9:39 EST/12:57, Kristjan remarked:
“It’s never a […] good sign when I’m fanatically looking for trades.”
These wise words hold a good lesson for us all: know the warning signs of when you’re at risk of forcing trades and, by extension, overtrading.
If you have a tendency to force trades and/or overtrade, it’s definitely something you need to address, using whatever approach works for you. I personally did this by crunching some numbers from my trading journal.
Maintain perspective
Going back to Kristjan, he remarked during the stream that he has a solid portfolio that is creeping higher — there’s nothing that he needs to do. Having that type of perspective is clearly vital for successfully trading longer time frames.
“S**t stocks make the biggest moves.”
Kristjan also reminded us of something he regularly says (17:20):
“Almost all stocks are s**t. That’s not a reason not to trade [them]. S**t stocks make the biggest moves.”
And related to this (18:04):
“All stocks are bad unless they go up (when you’re long).”
“Most of these stocks won’t be around in 10 years.”
Indices
Big breakout in $IWM
On the previous trading day, Friday 2 June 2023, $IWM (Russell) had a big breakout with big volume, coming out of a multi-month channel during which it was building higher lows:
However, this was mainly driven by, to quote Kristjan, “boring” stocks like banks and industrials, which typically aren’t very tradeable.
Later in the stream (24:34), Kristjan mentioned that he wants to see $IWM hold its 2 June breakout and start moving higher:
At the time of writing (14 June 2023, during market hours), it appears that Kristjan has got what he wanted — so far, at least:
Preferred action in other indices
Kristjan would also like to see the few big stocks that have been driving the recent market rally (see $QQQ and $FNGU below) pause:
And let other indices like $IWN (see above) and $SPY (see below) catch up:
In fact, Kristjan would like $IWN and $SPY to start leading, and $QQQ and $FNGU to start lagging. Better still would be for the few big movers to go sideways for a bit while other stocks in those indices catch up — this would give us great money-making opportunities.
Solar stocks lagging, but building big bases
At 21:05, Kristjan said that many solar names have been building higher lows within big bases. However, the overall industry has been lagging; see $TAN (solar ETF) below:
That said, solar stock $ARRY is building a nice base but needs some sort of catalyst:
$CSIQ is another solar name that has been building higher lows within a big base:
$JKS ditto:
$MAXN also hasn’t really been going anywhere:
$ENPH hasn’t gone anywhere for a year either:
However, among solar names, $FSLR has been acting a bit better (which Kristjan traded about a month ago):
Remember the importance of relative strength! (Which was discussed during the 19 May 2023 stream.)
Updated AI and quantum list
Since the 1 June 2023 stream, Kristjan has added three new names to his list of AI and quantum computing stocks:
EVAX
VRSSF
WIMI
At the time of writing, out of these three, $VRSSF looks the most interesting:
Stock charts
$CRSP
Develops transformative gene-based medicines for serious human diseases.
Industry: Biotechnology
Sector: Healthcare
Market cap: $5.1B (mid cap)
ADR: 6.4%
Timestamp: 12:11
Kristjan said the chart “looks good”, plus the stock is in a leading industry (biotechnology).
However, in hindsight, this flag ended up breaking down:
To borrow Mark Minervini’s phrase, we aren’t in an ‘easy dollar’ market (yet), particularly when it comes to breakouts. Kristjan talked more about breakout conditions during the 23 May 2023 stream.
$SWAV
Develops medical devices to treat atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
Industry: Medical devices
Sector: Healthcare
Market cap: $10.3B (large cap)
ADR: 4.4%
Timestamp: 14:24
Kristjan remarked that $SWAV attempted to break out on 2 June 2023. He also set an alert at the trendline I’ve added a blue arrow to.
$SWAV tried to break out again on the day of writing, on good volume, but is now near the lows of the day again (screenshot taken about 1.5 hours before the 14 June close):
$VSTM
Advances new medicines for cancer patients.
Industry: Biotechnology
Sector: Healthcare
Market cap: $201.7M (micro cap)
ADR: 17.8%
Timestamp: 27:48
$VSTM had a big EP on 26 May 2023, on news about positive trial data. Look at that volume!
If you want to learn more about EPs, the stream from 18 May 2023 was basically a masterclass.
More stream notes
All my Qullamaggie notes are available here.
And just for the record: my Qullamaggie stream notes are not, and never will be, paywalled. No matter how long it takes me to put them together (these kept me busy for 3–4 hours), and even though I do add value, Kristjan generously streams for free, making me feel that notes based on those streams should also not be paywalled.
Other trading resources
The Trading Resource Hub’s full archive is available here, which includes some recent posts relating to quantitative analysis, statistics, and how to use them as psychological aids in your trading.
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More about Qullamaggie
To learn more about Kristjan Kullamägi, aka Qullamaggie, and the way he trades, visit qullamaggie.com.
All past streams are available on Kristjan’s YouTube channel.
Thank you Kay for writing these up - SUPER helpful to me both to quickly read summaries of info and to get your insights on top.
Just to say I really appreciate you taking the time to do it!
I will make time to actually watch some of KK's streams, but can you tell me; does he mark on his charts or discuss in the streams his exact buy point. Or is it just price moving back above the ORH on the 5min chart on the EP day? I'm assuming it's the latter.
So for APLD for example, if he doesn't necessarily mark-up or disclose his exact buy we can assume it's around $5-5.10 an hour or so after the open on the 16th
I know nothing is an exact science and there's also an "art" to this but I'm wanting to make sure I understand clearly also.
TiA